Webinar: The Global Math & Science Learning Curve, TIMSS

What does achievement in math and science look like as students progress from one grade to another? And what factors help or hinder this achievement?

Educators, policymakers, and researchers from across the globe joined us to explore these questions through the lens of the first-ever TIMSS Longitudinal Study. The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) is an international assessment of 4th- and 8th-grade students’ math and science achievement administered every four years. After the 2023 cycle, the 72 participating systems were invited to join the new longitudinal study, in which the same students were reassessed one year later, in 5th and 9th grade, respectively. Though most countries, including the United States, did not participate, the nine jurisdictions that did provide important insights into the factors that shape student learning from one year to the next.

Charlotte Notaras, Lead Analyst for Policy & Research at NCEE, started the conversation off with an overview of the TIMMS-L findings. She noted that across all participating education systems, students showed stronger growth during the transition from 4th to 5th grade and more gradual gains from 8th to 9th grade.

She also highlighted several factors linked to student progress. Having educational resources at home, reporting a higher sense of well-being, and learning in classrooms with higher levels of instructional clarity all showed a positive impact on student performance. In contrast, frequent absences, bullying, and disruptive behavior had a negative impact on student achievement.

“In other words, when students get the mental, emotional, and academic resources they need, they tend to be more successful.” –Charlotte Notaras

In closing, she noted that across all systems, subjects, and grades, students scored above average on the “knowing” cognitive domain but below average on “reasoning,” suggesting that while they understand key concepts, they struggle to apply them—a pattern echoed by NAEP and PISA. And worryingly, students’ enthusiasm for and confidence in both math and science declined over the year in every participating jurisdiction, underscoring that achievement gains are only part of the story; how students feel about these subjects matters just as much.

NCEE CEO Vicki Phillips opened the panel discussion to explore how these findings connect with what student progress currently looks like in the U.S.

Tom Kane, Walter H. Gale Professor of Education and Economics at Harvard Graduate School of Education, emphasized a core tension: while U.S. students have lost significant ground since the pandemic, most parents believe their children are doing just fine. He noted that traditional signals like report card grades often mask underlying academic struggles. He stressed that clearer, more direct communication with families is essential if schools hope to address unfinished learning.

Kane also highlighted the uneven nature of recovery across U.S. districts. Higher-income districts have largely returned to or exceeded their pre-pandemic performance, while many high-poverty districts remain more than a grade level behind where they were in 2019.

He then connected these patterns to long-term economic consequences. Kane pointed to research showing that when states improved their NAEP scores between 1990 and 2015, students from those states went on to earn more, attend college at higher rates, and were less likely to experience negative outcomes such as teen motherhood or incarceration.

“They’re test scores, but they are also leading indicators for future economic growth. And these declines that we’ve seen are bound to mean fewer scientists and engineers in the future. Fewer folks doing the kind of work that will help our economy grow. We should be alarmed.” –Tom Kane

Building off of this call to address learning gaps, Tequilla Brownie, CEO at TNTP, turned the conversation toward practical ways that schools and educators can help students catch up. Drawing on TNTP’s Opportunity Makers research, she noted that the U.S. schools with a decade-long track record of accelerating student learning share three core practices: they prioritize belonging, consistency, and coherence. Creating environments where students feel connected and supported, she emphasized, is essential not only for academic progress but also for helping young people see the relevance of math and science to their own goals and future pathways.

Brownie also described a troubling decline in student engagement as they progress through school. Children enter kindergarten eager to learn, she explained, but by middle school their engagement has dropped sharply. This is not an inevitable result of adolescence. Instead, she urged educators to confront why students disengage, reminding participants that engagement is directly tied to the outcomes we want for young people.

“There is a direct relationship between engagement and the results that we actually want to achieve for our children.” -Tequilla Brownie

From there, Phillips, Kane, and Brownie widened the lens beyond test scores to examine what it will take to reverse these trends. Their conversation surfaced several cross-cutting themes, from tackling absenteeism and re-engaging students in meaningful learning, to rethinking how schools use technology and design learning experiences that prepare young people for a rapidly changing world.

Phillips closed the conversation on a hopeful note. Around the globe and here at home, she noted, education systems are experimenting with new models, embracing innovation, and working to align learning with the demands of the future. She also highlighted the creativity and clarity young people themselves bring.

“What I see young people engaging in, the ways that they talk about the solutions they need, gives me just a lot of hope. And I always walk away from those conversations having learned something really important.” -Vicki Phillips

To hear their full conversation, watch the video above.